The guided-missile destroyer USS Halsey illegally trespasses into the territorial waters of China's Xisha Qundao without the Chinese government's permission on May 10, 2024, and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command organizes naval and air forces to track, monitor and warn it off in accordance with the law and regulations. Photo: Screenshot from the official Weibo account of the PLA Southern Theater Command

The US has sustained a high-intensity military presence in the South China Sea and nearby areas, but the number and frequency of deployed platforms have plateaued over the past year, according to a Chinese think tank report released Tuesday. A Chinese military affairs expert warned that overextension of the US military activities may increase the risk of accidents.

In 2024, the US military continued to strengthen its military deterrence against China, maintaining high-intensity operations including close-in reconnaissance, Taiwan Straits transits, forward presence, strategic cruising, military exercises and drills, as well as battlefield preparation in the South China Sea and its surrounding areas, the Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) said on Tuesday in a report on US military activities in the South China Sea in 2024.

The US military continued high-intensity aerial close-in reconnaissance operations near China, but saw only limited growth in activity. The cumulative deployment totals about 1,000 sorties, with no significant increase compared to 2022 and 2023, the SCSPI said.

In the meantime, the US significantly intensified maritime reconnaissance activities, and continued to leverage the Philippines as a key staging point to increase activity, according to the report.

The think tank concluded that, while the US military has gone to great lengths to intensify its presence and activities in the South China Sea, it has hit its peacetime peak due to an “increment bottleneck” in platform quantity and distractions such as the Red Sea crisis. 

Zhang Junshe, a Chinese military affairs expert, told the Global Times that while the US may have reached a deployment bottleneck, its military activities near China remain highly intense and should be viewed in full context. 

Zhang noted that the US has dispersed military resources to Europe and the Middle East, so it has had limited equipment to further enhance activities in the South China Sea, Zhang said.

Under this circumstance, the US’ highly intensive military activities including close-in reconnaissance could result in aerial and maritime accidents, as the US forces, including its equipment and personnel, are facing fatigue, Zhang said, citing US military’s accidents in the South China Sea in recent years.

In October 2021, a US nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Connecticut, struck an uncharted seamount in the South China Sea; In January 2022, a US F-35C fighter jet had a landing mishap on the deck of the USS Carl Vinson while the US aircraft carrier was in the South China Sea.

Accidents are also likely to happen if the US military approaches too close to Chinese territories, forcing the Chinese side to track, monitor and drive them away when necessary, Zhang said, noting that the US moves sabotage peace and stability in the region.

Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson at China’s Ministry of National Defense, said at a regular press conference in September 2024 that the US and its allies and partners’ vessels and aircraft have conducted close-in harassment and provocation, illegally trespassed into Chinese territorial waters or sea and airspaces under Chinese jurisdiction, maliciously disturbed normal training activities by the Chinese side, irresponsibly made reckless maneuvers.

He said such actions seriously undermined China’s sovereignty and security interests, seriously harmed safety of personnel from both sides, seriously sabotaged peace and stability in the region.

These fully show that the US side is the true provocateur, disturber and destroyer, the spokesperson said.